ANALYSIS OF MORTALITY AND MORBIDITY STRUCTURE OF THE POPULATION AGED 60+ IN THE SOUTHERN REGION OF KAZAKHSTAN AS A BASIS FOR ASSESSING THE NEEDS FOR MEDICAL AND SOCIAL CARE

Abstract

To analyse the structure of mortality and morbidity among the population aged 60 years and older in the city of Shymkent and Turkestan Region over the period 2015-2024, and to identify priority directions for organising medical and social care for older adults.

A retrospective analysis of official statistics (2015-2024) was conducted, covering mortality data (Form No.32) by sex, age group, and ICD-10 cause of death; registered morbidity data from Form No.12; and demographic estimates for the population aged 60+. Rates were calculated per 100,000 population of the corresponding age-sex group. Statistical processing employed descriptive methods and trend analysis.

Cardiovascular diseases (I00-I99) were the leading cause of death among persons aged 60+, accounting for 45–52% of total mortality; neoplasms (C00-D48) ranked second (12-18%), followed by respiratory diseases (J00-J99) at 8-15%. Men died predominantly at ages 65-74 (ischaemic heart disease peak), while women died predominantly at ages 80+ (cerebrovascular diseases and dementia). Respiratory mortality rose by 40-60% in 2020-2021, correlating with COVID-19. Diabetes mellitus (E10-E14) prevalence was 18-24 per 1,000 among persons aged 60+, trending upward in the 75+ subgroups. Dispanserisation coverage reached 78.4% for cardiovascular diseases but only 52.3% for diabetes.

The findings confirm a high burden of chronic non-communicable diseases in the Southern Region. Priority directions for developing medical and social care for older adults include: 1) strengthening primary geriatric care with emphasis on hypertension control and secondary stroke prevention; 2) integrating palliative and long-term care for persons aged 80+; 3) optimising care pathways for diabetes management; 4) expanding telemedicine services to improve access in rural areas of Turkestan Region.